Several years ago, I started asking students that expressed interest in pursuing a career musical theater to join me in a thought experiment: "How many of your classmates who play sports are planning on pursuing it as a career?" Some of them would give me a sideways expression and say, "I don't have any friends who play play sports." But the rest would say none.
Next I'd ask: "Do you think it's more difficult to become a player on say the New York Yankees or be cast in a Broadway musical?" They would think about this question, but consistently answer "The Yankees." That's what I would have said too. But, it turns out that making it to the Major Leagues might be more achievable than landing a role on Broadway.
For the average American male aged 18-48, the chance of playing professional baseball (MLB or minor league) is 1 in 14,767. In comparison, the odds of a male aged 18-64 landing a role in a Broadway, Off-Broadway, or National Touring show are significantly slimmer, at 1 in 67,602. As for women aged 18-64, the odds of securing a coveted spot on Broadway are even worse, with just 1 in 109,120 chances.
If you want to check my math, here you go:
| Baseball | Broadway (men) | Broadway (women) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total participants | 4980 | 1457 | 931 |
| Population in age range | 73559166 | 98471752 | 101674248 |
| Probability (%) | 0.00677 | 0.00148 | 0.000916 |
| Probability (1 in … | 1 in 14,767 | 1 in 67,602 | 1 in 109,120 |
According to the website College Factual, 13,117 students received bachelor's degrees in drama and theater arts during the 2020-2021 academic year, ranking a bachelor's degree in drama and theater arts 38 out of the 363 degree programs offered that year — 911 were specifically in musical theater.
These new, talented, well-trained actors will be entering a saturated job market. While there is no system for tracking the number of actors auditioning each year. The Broadway Collective is a training program for high school students. They claim that at least 10,000 actors audition for the 1,260 roles that need to be filled each year, but provide no source for their data. We can, however measure a different way.
Playbill’s annual Big 10 list ranks collegiate programs by the number of alumni appearing in shows. I analyzed data from the 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2022. The twenty-five programs represented on the list have 1,933 credits.
| Count of NAME | |
|---|---|
| New York University | 347 |
| University of Michigan | 173 |
| College Conservatory of Music University of Cincinnati | 156 |
| American Musical and Dramatic Academy | 150 |
| Carnegie Mellon University | 134 |
| The Juilliard School | 132 |
| Boston Conservatory | 111 |
| Northwestern University | 93 |
| Pennsylvania State University | 89 |
| Yale University | 84 |
| Point Park University | 69 |
| University of North Carolina - School of the Arts | 61 |
| Elon University | 48 |
| Syracuse University | 46 |
| Oklahoma City University | 45 |
| Pace University | 34 |
| Ithaca College | 27 |
| Baldwin Wallace University | 25 |
| Hartt School of Music - University of Hartford | 20 |
| Florida State University | 20 |
| University of the Arts | 19 |
| University of Miami | 18 |
| Marymount Manhattan College | 12 |
| Fordham University | 12 |
| University of California, Los Angeles | 8 |
| Grand Total | 1933 |
In his article “Average Broadway” Derek Miller analyzes data from 9,300 shows from 1915 to 2015. We can combine his findings with data from the Broadway League to create a rough approximation of roles available in an average season.
| Avg. Cast Size | Avg. Total Productions | Total Roles | Avg. New Productions | Total New Roles | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Musicals | 24 | 28 | 672 | 12 | 288 |
| Plays | 9 | 23 | 207 | 25 | 225 |
| 879 | 513 |
Based on these estimates, it appears that less than half of the actors cast during these five seasons graduated from one of the twenty-five schools featured in Playbill’s Big 10 list.
| Est. Total Credits | Non-Big 10 Credits | Big 10 List Credits |
|---|---|---|
| 4395 | 2462 | 1933 |
| 44% |
What should more alarming to anyone considering this profession is the frequency with which actors appear on multiple lists. Almost 30% of these elite actors only appeared in one show over the course of five seasons. There is undoubtedly no question that a single Broadway credit is a monumental achievement. It does not, however, qualify as a benchmark for financial security. A major league baseball player’s contract will be honored even if he never plays a single game. A Broadway contract is in force for the duration of the show. If an actor is lucky, they’ll land a role in a show that plays beyond their desire to remain in it. That appears to be the case with most of the actors appearing in multiple seasons.
| Total Years on List | 1933 Total Credits | Total Credits |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 566 | 29% |
| 2 | 287 | 15% |
| 3 | 132 | 7% |
| 4 | 61 | 3% |
| 5 | 13 | 1% |